Several countries in North America, Europe and Asia have set goals to increase production and sales of electric vehicles, with the hope that all new cars produced by 2040 will be electric. However, a new industry survey found that most people are pessimistic that the goal will be met, with only 39 percent believing such a vision will become a reality.
According to the U.S. government’s climate goals, half of all new cars and light trucks sold in the country should be zero-emission vehicles by 2030. California, for one, has set 2035 as the deadline for banning the sale of fuel-powered vehicles. In some European countries, 2040 seems to be the end of fuel cars, and the United Kingdom wants to ban them by 2030. Automakers on every continent are scrambling to go electric as they begin to phase out their internal combustion engine vehicle lines.
But a survey of the automotive industry conducted jointly by electrical equipment manufacturer ABB Robotics and Automotive Manufacturing Solutions magazine shows some pessimism about whether these goals will be met. When asked if it was “realistic to achieve 100 percent electric vehicle production by 2030 to 2040 to meet the goals in different regions,” only 11 percent answered in the affirmative, and less than 10 percent of European respondents thought the goal was achievable. This compares with 12 percent of North American respondents and 17 percent of Asian respondents who hold similar views.
Another 28 percent responded, “I think it can be achieved, but it will not be easy.” This leaves more than half of respondents who believe it is too early to achieve full adoption of electric vehicles between 2030 and 2040. 41 percent said, “It is possible to achieve the goal, but not earlier.” The final 18 percent said that the replacement of fuel-powered vehicles is still a long way off.
Those working for Tier 2 automotive suppliers are the most optimistic, with more than 50 percent saying a complete shift to electric vehicle production is possible; in contrast, only one-third of respondents in other groups think this is likely to become a reality. These groups include original equipment manufacturers, design and engineering service providers, Tier 1 suppliers, Tier 3 suppliers, software and IT service providers, and logistics service providers.
Without a doubt, the biggest barriers to 100% electric vehicle production are supply chain and cost. Of these, 19% of respondents cited the creation of a new battery supply chain as the biggest obstacle. We have already seen the impact of this, such as the battery supply shortage that has severely limited Toyota’s electric vehicle business and Ford’s access to a sufficient supply of batteries. In 2023, Ford tripled production of the Mustang Mach-E-E and doubled production of the F-150 Lightning.
Just as electric vehicles are clearly more expensive than similarly sized and equipped fuel vehicles, building new electric vehicle production facilities requires significant capital investment, for which 16 percent of respondents cited high costs as the second biggest obstacle to achieving 100 percent electric vehicle production.
Other concerns include shortages of raw materials and infrastructure, inadequate grid capacity, lack of green energy, and lack of charging infrastructure for electric vehicles. Concerns about EV performance, lack of demand and the high cost of purchasing new EVs were also cited as reasons for pessimism.
Industry respondents were also asked what they saw as the biggest barriers to EV adoption, with a lack of charging infrastructure leading the way (26%), followed by 17% citing the high cost of new EVs. North American consumer resistance to electric vehicles is expected to be a bigger negative factor than cost compared to respondents in Europe or Asia.
The good news is that 80 percent of respondents believe it will be possible to achieve sustainable vehicle manufacturing. Of those, 51 percent said, “It can be done, but it won’t be easy”; another 29 percent said it is possible, “but difficult.
