According to Taiwan media Electronic Times, semiconductor equipment industry insiders pointed out that TSMC’s advanced manufacturing orders are full. In addition to existing customers such as Apple and Qualcomm, Google and Tesla have already reported that they will invest in TSMC. Sources pointed out that TSMC has recently become the first choice for China Netcom, automobile and mobile phone manufacturers.
In the automotive field, TSMC cooperates with Volkswagen, GM, and Toyota. In addition, Amazon, Baidu, Alibaba, etc. have already invested in TSMC. After Xiaomi and Vivo, OPPO has also embarked on the road of self-developed chips. It is rumored that OPPO has invested in TSMC and signed a 4nm cooperation.
With competitors’ technologies and yields falling short of expectations, TSMC continued to receive orders from major customers such as mobile phones and HPC.
Currently, Samsung Electronics and Intel are stuck in the black hole of advanced manufacturing investment, and the huge cost may be difficult to recover.
Looking forward to the first half of 2023, TSMC may not be able to avoid entering the industry’s high inventory and low demand storm circle. The market expects that TSMC’s revenue growth momentum will weaken significantly, but in the second half of the year, as inventory depletion comes to an end and demand picks up, driven by the launch of new products from many factories, operations will rebound significantly.
As for Samsung and Intel, the market conditions will be sluggish in the first half of 2023. The two manufacturers are facing huge investment but no customer orders. The next expansion plan may make the situation even more difficult.
Samsung has confirmed that it will lose a large order for Nvidia GPUs, and Qualcomm has also greatly reduced the proportion of its investment. The two major customers are estimated to account for about 40% of Samsung’s foundry business. It is difficult for customers who are superimposed on their own 3nm GAA process to support advanced process investment. Intel, which is facing the loss of market share in PCs and servers, and the dilemma of splitting design and foundry, has returned to market competition. It has no technology and cost advantages, and it is difficult to obtain orders from competitors such as AMD, Nvidia, and Qualcomm.
The advanced process below 7nm is expensive, and the number of major chip manufacturers with the ability to place orders has been greatly reduced with the advancement of the process; the customer base for the 3nm process is mainly mobile phone and HPC manufacturers, and there are only a handful of customers who place orders. Currently, Apple, MediaTek, Qualcomm, AMD, Nvidia, Intel and Broadcom are all placing orders at TSMC.
The tide of self-developed chips brings business opportunities
In recent years, Apple’s self-developed chip research and development has expanded to the Mac family, 5G modem, RF and other fields. Research chip ranks.
Equipment manufacturers said that in the automotive field, the “chip shortage” trend has changed the traditional supply chain model. International automakers have begun to directly match wafer foundries. TSMC is currently cooperating with Volkswagen, GM, and Toyota. In addition, because Samsung’s 5/3nm process technology is difficult to meet Tesla’s requirements, TSMC’s 4nm process has also received orders for Tesla’s next-generation self-driving chips.
In the field of mobile phones, after Xiaomi and vivo, OPPO has also embarked on the road of self-developed chips. Recently, it has been widely rumored that OPPO has invested in TSMC and signed a 4nm cooperation agreement. In fact, it was reported more than a year ago. Mobile phone brands in mainland China are entering the 5nm era to maintain competitiveness. Under the poor yield rate of Samsung below 5nm, it can only place an order for TSMC.
With the wave of self-developed chips driven by Apple sweeping across the country, device applications are more diverse, and there is no competition at the same level, TSMC has become the first choice for film production, and its competitive advantage continues to expand. TSMC’s long-term orders for advanced processes below 7nm have been stable. In addition, TSMC’s foundry quotations continue to rise. After the revenue and profit have survived the industry correction storm in the first half of 2023, operations will resume growth.
