The US electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla is about to release its electric vehicle delivery volume in the fourth quarter of this year, which is expected to hit a record high again. But full-year deliveries are likely to fall short of the 2 million internal target set by CEO Elon Musk earlier this year.
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Facing the unfavorable situation of slowing sales, Tesla took advantage of industry-leading profit margins in 2023 to significantly reduce the prices of four models globally and focus its business on the Chinese market with strong local competitors such as BYD.
Tesla’s price war and slowing demand for electric vehicles have prompted automakers such as Ford to pull back on electrification plans, making Tesla the undisputed leader in the U.S. market and helping the company’s stock more than double this year.
“The fourth quarter is typically the largest of the year in terms of Tesla’s single-quarter deliveries, and we expect that to happen again this year,” said Garrett Nelson, senior analyst at CFRA Research. situation.”
Tesla will announce fourth-quarter deliveries and production as early as next Tuesday. Tesla is likely to deliver 1.82 million vehicles globally in 2023, up 37% from 2022, including about 473,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, according to a London Stock Exchange survey of 14 analysts.
Elon Musk said in January that Tesla was on track to deliver 2 million electric vehicles this year if there was no “damn force majeure.” But Elon Musk also warned in October that rising borrowing costs were putting pressure on market demand.
Tesla has a habit of boosting year-end sales by increasing discounts on major models. The company said it aims to achieve average annual growth of 50% for multiple years.
Tesla will also have to face the loss of federal tax credits for some models in the U.S. and German markets next year. The German government is ending its electric car subsidy program ahead of schedule.
This situation may force Tesla to continue cutting prices next year, while interest rates and battery raw material costs are expected to ease during the same period.
Daiwa Capital Markets analyst Jairam Nathan lowered Tesla’s 2024 delivery forecast to 2.04 million vehicles from 2.14 million vehicles and said average revenue per vehicle It is expected to be down 4% from 2023.
Tesla is also dealing with increased regulatory scrutiny of its self-driving systems and other components in the United States and some European countries. Earlier this month, Tesla recalled nearly all of its electric vehicles on U.S. roads to fix safety defects.
Elon Musk has previously said he believes Full Self-Driving (FSD) systems will one day account for a majority of Tesla’s value.
Analysts polled by data analytics platform Visible Alpha expect Tesla to deliver 2.2 million vehicles next year. But most believe the newly announced Cybertruck electric pickup truck and refreshed Model 3 will not be enough to boost demand.
“Tesla It is a frank admission that the company is currently in a transitional period of low growth.”
Investors expect margins to remain under pressure as Tesla ramps up production of its Cybertruck and prepares to launch cheaper vehicles.
Elon Musk has said that the Cybertruck will only account for a small part of Tesla’s vehicle production next year and that there are “huge challenges” in achieving mass production of the electric pickup truck. And the Cybertruck’s controversial design has divided fans.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan said in a report that the Cybertruck will account for 3% of Tesla deliveries by 2024, calling the Cybertruck more of a A “halo” product used to attract consumers.
