▲ Picture source Lenovo official website

According to the agency’s forecast, the overall notebook market shipments will reach 172 million units in 2024, an annual increase of 3.2%. They believe that the main growth momentum will come from the gradual release of replacement demand in the terminal business market, as well as the continued expansion of some market segments such as Chromebooks and gaming notebooks.

It is noticed that TrendForce also mentioned the development status of AI PC in the report. The agency believes that due to the current high cost of upgrading AI PC-related software and hardware, the initial stage of development will focus on high-end business users and content creators. The emergence of AI PC will not necessarily stimulate additional PC purchase demand. Most of them will naturally migrate to AI PC devices during the business replacement process in 2024.

TrendForce believes that for consumers, most of the cloud AI applications currently provided by PC devices can meet the needs of daily life and entertainment. If there is no AI killer application in the short term, it will be difficult to upgrade the AI experience quickly. Popularization of consumer AI PCs. However, in the long term, after the application possibilities of more diverse AI tools are developed in the future, and the price threshold is lowered, the penetration rate of consumer AI PCs can still be expected.

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According to statistics from TrendForce, the world’s top five memory module manufacturers will account for 90% of overall sales in 2022; the top ten will collectively account for 96% of the global module market’s turnover. Among them, Kingston’s market share reached 78%. Although its revenue fell slightly, it still maintained the first place in the world.

Despite poor end-market demand, Kingston’s revenue declined slightly due to its brand scale and complete product supply chain, with only a 5.3% year-on-year decline, firmly ranking first in market share.

Ramaxel (memory technology), ranked second, has a year-on-year growth of 90.38% in 2022. Although the performance is outstanding, the main reason is that the recession in 2021 is large, resulting in a low base period. If 2021 is excluded, the revenue scale shows a reasonable trend compared with the revenue in previous years.

ADATA mainly supplies consumer products. Although it also actively deployed high-margin products in industrial control, automotive and e-sports categories last year, its proportion is still low at this stage, so it is difficult to withstand the impact of shrinking global demand. Revenue fell by 10.0%, ranking third.

POWEV (Jiahe Jinwei), benefiting from its brands’ achievements in the e-sports market, has experienced rising revenue. Coupled with its diversified channel sales model, the brand’s revenue has grown by 12.7%, ranking fourth.

Although Kimtigo actively developed products in various fields and expanded its global footprint in 2022, it was still unable to cope with the decline in electronic consumption, and its revenue declined, so its ranking rose slightly to fifth.

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In terms of PC DRAM, as the average price of DDR5 has increased in the third quarter, coupled with the stocking up of new CPU models, it is expected that the demand for DDR5 will continue to rise.

TrendForce estimates that DDR4 prices will increase by 0~5% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of this year; DDR5 prices will increase by approximately 3~8% quarter-on-quarter, and PC DRAM contract prices are expected to increase by 3~8% quarter-on-quarter.

In terms of server DRAM, the proportion of DDR5 buyer inventory has increased to 30~35% from 20% in the second quarter. However, the actual server utilization rate in the third quarter was only 15%. This shows that the market adoption demand is not as expected.

The average price of server DDR4 is expected to remain flat in the fourth quarter, while the average price of server DDR5 is still expected to fall. As the proportion of DDR5 shipments increases, and the price difference between DDR4 and DDR5 is about 50~60%, the average price of comprehensive products will still rise. Retail price (Blended ASP), so the contract price of Server DRAM in the fourth quarter is expected to increase by 3~8% month-on-month.

In terms of mobile DRAM, LPDDR4X or old process products, which currently have a large inventory of original manufacturers, are expected to have contract prices increase by about 3~8% month-on-month; LPDDR5 (X) is slightly in tight supply, and contract prices are expected to increase by 5~10% month-on-month.

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The report stated that in the second quarter of 2023, driven by Chromebooks, laptop shipments reached 42.52 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%; overall, shipments in the first half of the year were 77.5 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 23.5%.

TrendForce believes that end consumer demand will further drive the development of the laptop business in the second half of 2023. The shipment volume in the third quarter is estimated to be 44.13 million units, a moderate growth of 3.8%; the full-year laptop shipments are expected to reach 163 million units. , a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%.

It is learned from a TrendForce report that despite the rebound in consumer demand, the global consumption environment is still under pressure and the market has not yet shown strong bullish signs. TrendForce predicts that the annual growth rate will hover between 2% and 5% in 2024. %, shipments are slightly higher than pre-pandemic levels.

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According to TrendForce, judging from the shipments of various panel manufacturers, the decline in LCD demand is a common problem faced by some manufacturers. BOE currently ranks as the global leader in smartphone panel shipments, with shipments expected to be approximately 560 million units in 2023. Affected by the decline of LCD, shipments are estimated to be approximately 520 million units in 2024, an annual decrease of 7.2%. Samsung Display (SDC) ranks second in shipments. Due to the shrinkage of the rigid AMOLED panel market, shipments this year are about 350 million pieces. Supported by demand from Apple and its own phones, shipments in 2024 are expected to be the same as this year. Ranked third is Tianma, with shipments of approximately 175 million pieces in 2023. With expanded cooperation with various brands, shipments may grow slightly to 190 million pieces in 2024, an annual increase of 5.2%.

Ranked fourth is Innolux, which will ship approximately 140 million pieces in 2023. Shrinking LCD market demand will affect shipments in 2024, which is expected to be approximately 125 million pieces, an annual decrease of 11.2%. Ranked fifth, HKC, relying on the cost advantage of its G8.6 generation line, is expected to ship 170 million pieces in 2023 and is estimated to grow to 180 million pieces in 2024, an annual increase of 4.2%. TrendForce said that among the top five manufacturers, only SDC’s shipments will decline in 2023 due to weakening demand for rigid AMOLED panels, which means that Korean rigid AMOLED panels will face cost competition after continental flexible AMOLED panels enter mass production. Inadequate and gradually declining.

If we look at the shipment proportion of panel manufacturers in each region, Taiwanese panel manufacturers have been able to maintain their proportion with the support of a-Si LCD; Japanese panel manufacturers have sharply and quickly withdrawn from the phone market, resulting in a decline in proportion; Korean panel manufacturers still rely on flexible AMOLED panels Technology and the use of high-end phones can be maintained at 23~25%; the proportion of mainland panel manufacturers in overall smartphone panel shipments has rapidly increased from 54.8% in 2022 to 63.7% in 2023, showing that mainland panel manufacturers Continue to play a key role in the overall smartphone supply chain

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It is learned from the report that the overall supply of global automotive display panels is expected to maintain a growth trend this year, with shipments expected to exceed 240 million units in 2026, of which OLED panels are expected to account for 8.9%.

Compared with traditional LCD panels, OLED has the advantages of self-illumination, thinness, high refresh rate, flexibility, etc., which can significantly increase the added value of cars.

In particular, the high flexibility of OLED flexible screens provides greater room for innovative automotive design, and is currently mainly positioned as flagship and high-end products in the automotive market.

At the technical level, in order to overcome the durability problem of OLED in automobiles, Tandem OLED technology is often used in technology. Multiple OLED components are connected in series and superimposed on each other through connecting layers to form a high-efficiency OLED component structure. After series connection Compared with single-layer OLEDs, the current density of dual-layer components to achieve the same brightness is 1/2 of that of a single layer, and the lifespan can be at least doubled, which can effectively reduce the power consumption of the panel.

In terms of cost, through the introduction of Hybrid OLED panels, the rigid OLED glass substrate is combined with the thin film packaging technology used in flexible OLED to simultaneously reduce weight and cost. The effect of curved surfaces can also be achieved by thinning the substrate.

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In order to reduce losses, NAND flash memory suppliers have made multiple production cuts since 2023, and the relevant effects have already been seen. It is reported that NAND Flash chip contract prices rebounded in August and continued to rise in September.

Industry giant Samsung continues to cut production, mainly in sub-128-layer products, down 50% in September, prompting other manufacturers to follow suit.

Market experts also predict that NAND flash memory prices will continue to rise in the fourth quarter. TrendForce is optimistic about NAND flash prices in the fourth quarter, estimating growth of about 3% to 8%, higher than its initial forecast of 0% to 5%.

TrendForce’s view is that DRAM’s recovery will be slightly later, and it is expected to start rising in the fourth quarter of this year, marking the beginning of a new growth cycle.

Industry experts point out that the rise in DRAM prices is not only due to factors such as production cuts and inventory clearances, but is also related to the artificial intelligence market. Limited demand for DDR5 in the data center market driven by AI applications led to an early price spike.

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Citing data from the report that the number of new energy vehicles (the actual number of PHEVs and BEVs held annually) will reach 96 million in 2026, and the vehicle-to-pile ratio (the ratio of the number of charging piles corresponding to one new energy vehicle) is about 6 :1, significantly lower than in 2021 (about 10:1).

The report also pointed out that China is an important driving force in promoting the number of public charging piles worldwide, and it is estimated that the vehicle-to-pile ratio will increase to 2:1 in 2030.

The current number of charging piles in the United States is more than 200,000, and the goal is to build 500,000 charging piles in 2026. The number of new energy vehicles in the United States is expected to reach 15 million, and the vehicle-to-pile ratio is still as high as 32:1. In 2026, Europe and China’s vehicle-to-pile ratio is 9:1 and 4:1.

TrendForce pointed out in the report that in the European market, driven by the Net Zero Act, the goal is to build 17 million charging piles by 2030.

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TrendForce said that Samsung has joined the ranks of production cuts since the second quarter, and is expected to expand production cuts in the third quarter. While supply is converging, price increases are also brewing, and the oversupply situation is expected to be improved.

However, due to the large number of suppliers in the NAND Flash industry, most manufacturers still choose to actively sell goods in the third quarter even though inventory is still high. It is estimated that the average price decline of all NAND Flash products in the third quarter will converge to 5~10%. Shipments will increase with the momentum of peak season stocking, and the NAND Flash industry revenue is expected to continue to increase by more than 3% in the third quarter.

▲Image source TrendForce

In the second quarter, Micron had the highest revenue growth among all players, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.6%, reaching US$1.21 billion. The recovery in revenue performance is mainly due to the reduction of customer inventory in the PC and Mobile markets. Client SSD in particular benefited from the increase in average carrying capacity, and bit shipments hit a single-quarter high.

As the entire industry actively reduces production, Micron believes that the supply and demand situation will become healthier in the second half of the year. However, from a full-year perspective, high inventory will still suppress the recovery of the NAND Flash industry. The entire industry is expected to maintain low supply bit output until 2024.

Other companies such as SK hynix & Solidigm and Western Digital have benefited from factors such as the continued reduction of SSD inventory in the channel market and the growth of single-machine capacity in the consumer electronics market. Bit shipments have increased significantly. Drive revenue upward in the second quarter. Among them, SK Group’s revenue growth ranked second, with a month-on-month growth of approximately 26.6%; Western Digital’s revenue growth was approximately 5.4%.

Samsung and Kioxia are the only two companies to experience a decline in revenue. Although their bit shipments have grown, they are still unable to withstand the impact of falling average selling prices.

Samsung’s revenue in the second quarter decreased by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter to approximately US$2.90 billion. Among them, AI servers, which the market continues to focus on, continue to compress the shipment scale of general-purpose servers. Revenue in the NAND Flash field did not decline due to the AI boom. Benefit; Kioxia’s second-quarter revenue decreased by approximately 1.3% quarter-on-quarter to approximately US$1.83 billion.

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▲ Source: TrendForce

Top 5 Revenue Vendors:

• TSMC’s Q2 revenue was approximately US$15.666 billion (currently around RMB113.892 billion), a decrease of 6.4% YoY, with a market share of 56.4%.
• Samsung’s second-quarter revenue of about $3.234 billion (currently about RMB 23.511 billion), up 17.3% sequentially, with a market share of 11.7%.
• Ge-Xin’s Q2 revenue was approximately US$1.845 billion (currently approximately RMB13.413 billion), up 0.2% sequentially, with a 6.7% market share.
• UMC reported second-quarter revenue of approximately US$1.833 billion (currently approximately RMB13.326 billion), an increase of 2.8% QoQ and a 6.6% market share.
• SMIC reported second-quarter revenue of approximately $1.56 billion ($11.341 billion), up 6.7% sequentially, with a market share of 5.6%.

According to TrendForce, the biggest change for the sixth to tenth-ranked companies in the second quarter was that SMIC returned to the tenth position, while the rest of the companies remained unchanged in the rankings. Revenues of Hua Hong, Hi-Tech Semiconductor, and Power Semiconductor Corporation (PSMC) in the second quarter were roughly the same as those of the previous quarter or slightly lower, and are expected to follow the same trend in the third quarter.

Looking ahead to the third quarter, TrendForce said that the peak season demand in the second half of the year is weaker than in previous years, but orders for high-priced main chips and peripheral ICs, such as APs and modems, are expected to support the capacity utilization performance of Apple’s supply chain partners in the third quarter, and a small portion of the HPC AI chips will increase orders to boost high-priced process orders. Foundry output value is expected to rebound from the bottom, followed by slow growth.

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