Regarding client SSDs, since both original manufacturers and module manufacturers are actively raising prices, prices will not fall in the short term. On the other hand, production cuts in mainstream processes and fewer high-end Client SSD suppliers have given original manufacturers better bargaining power. Therefore, high-end products are expected to rise together. It is estimated that the contract price of PC Client SSD in the fourth quarter will increase by 8~13% month-on-month.

In terms of enterprise SSD, the inventory of Chinese CSP operators has dropped to a reasonable level. Coupled with the increase in demand from second-tier e-commerce during the peak season, the overall procurement demand for Enterprise SSD is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. As NAND wafer prices have started to rise since August, and suppliers’ bargaining attitudes have become tougher, Enterprise SSD contract prices are expected to increase by about 5 to 10% month-on-month in the fourth quarter.

In terms of eMMC, in the second half of the year, it will mainly rely on TV shipments and demand for some smartphones, but in fact the purchasing momentum is not positive. As original factory production cuts have also affected the mainstream manufacturing process of eMMC, the volume of goods has gradually decreased, and customers may only be able to obtain part of the supply even if they propose purchase quantities. Therefore, it is estimated that the eMMC contract price in the fourth quarter will increase by about 10~15% quarter-on-quarter.

In terms of UFS, benefiting from the release of new phones, seasonal stocking-up effects and the efforts of some brands to maintain market share, smartphone OEMs tend to increase parts inventories to a safe level in the fourth quarter, driving up procurement momentum. It is expected that in the fourth quarter Quarterly UFS contract prices have increased by 10~15% month-on-month.

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According to the report, compared with the previous low level, the domestic memory downstream leading flash memory procurement cost has risen by nearly 20%, and the memory procurement cost has risen by about 30%. The ensuing impact, that is, from the fourth quarter of this year, the impact of rising costs of storage components will gradually be transmitted to the consumer side, notebook computers, phones and other end products may face price increases.

Also this morning, @ digital chat station also said in an article, “the upstream engaged in a riotous operation”, and bluntly said that memory and storage “the era of the price of cabbage to the past”. According to him, this means that the starting price of some new flagship models will rise by 300-500 RMB. In addition, @DigitalChat said in response to a comment from a user that “this (memory) bonus is a phase.”

It was previously reported that the Korean media Business Korea had claimed in a report earlier this month, Samsung internally that the current NAND Flash supply price is too low, the company plans to start in the fourth quarter of this year, raise the contract price of NAND Flash products, the rate of increase of more than 10%, is expected to be the fastest this month, the new contract will be the use of the new price.

The new contract is expected to adopt the new price this month at the earliest.

▲ Source: Business Korea

Since the beginning of this year, Samsung has been pursuing a production reduction strategy, Samsung’s wafer production has dropped significantly by 40 percent, the initial production cuts were mainly focused on the DRAM field, and then Samsung began to start to significantly reduce the production of NAND Flash business in the second half of the year, and is now trying to promote the normalization of the price of NAND.

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▲ Source: Business Korea

Since the beginning of this year, Samsung has been pursuing a production reduction strategy, Samsung’s wafer production fell by 40%, the initial production reduction initiatives are mainly focused on the field of DRAM, then Samsung began to embark on a substantial reduction in the second half of the NAND Flash business production, now trying to promote the normalization of the price of NAND.

Now DRAM prices have rebounded, while NAND products still have room to break through. Samsung’s goal is to expand the scale of production cuts, reduce supply, and then raise product prices to seek a reversal, and it expects to realize the break-even point for NAND in the second quarter of next year.

According to Han Dong-hee, a researcher at SK Securities, Samsung’s second wave of production cuts and profit-prioritization policy are expected to drive a rebound in memory chip prices.

Currently, buyers and sellers in the industry are negotiating contract prices, and foreign media believe that DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices will rise 10%-15% in the fourth quarter, and Samsung is even planning to raise 20%, but we still have to see the specific transaction price.

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In order to reduce losses, NAND flash memory suppliers have made multiple production cuts since 2023, and the relevant effects have already been seen. It is reported that NAND Flash chip contract prices rebounded in August and continued to rise in September.

Industry giant Samsung continues to cut production, mainly in sub-128-layer products, down 50% in September, prompting other manufacturers to follow suit.

Market experts also predict that NAND flash memory prices will continue to rise in the fourth quarter. TrendForce is optimistic about NAND flash prices in the fourth quarter, estimating growth of about 3% to 8%, higher than its initial forecast of 0% to 5%.

TrendForce’s view is that DRAM’s recovery will be slightly later, and it is expected to start rising in the fourth quarter of this year, marking the beginning of a new growth cycle.

Industry experts point out that the rise in DRAM prices is not only due to factors such as production cuts and inventory clearances, but is also related to the artificial intelligence market. Limited demand for DDR5 in the data center market driven by AI applications led to an early price spike.

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TrendForce said that Samsung has joined the ranks of production cuts since the second quarter, and is expected to expand production cuts in the third quarter. While supply is converging, price increases are also brewing, and the oversupply situation is expected to be improved.

However, due to the large number of suppliers in the NAND Flash industry, most manufacturers still choose to actively sell goods in the third quarter even though inventory is still high. It is estimated that the average price decline of all NAND Flash products in the third quarter will converge to 5~10%. Shipments will increase with the momentum of peak season stocking, and the NAND Flash industry revenue is expected to continue to increase by more than 3% in the third quarter.

▲Image source TrendForce

In the second quarter, Micron had the highest revenue growth among all players, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.6%, reaching US$1.21 billion. The recovery in revenue performance is mainly due to the reduction of customer inventory in the PC and Mobile markets. Client SSD in particular benefited from the increase in average carrying capacity, and bit shipments hit a single-quarter high.

As the entire industry actively reduces production, Micron believes that the supply and demand situation will become healthier in the second half of the year. However, from a full-year perspective, high inventory will still suppress the recovery of the NAND Flash industry. The entire industry is expected to maintain low supply bit output until 2024.

Other companies such as SK hynix & Solidigm and Western Digital have benefited from factors such as the continued reduction of SSD inventory in the channel market and the growth of single-machine capacity in the consumer electronics market. Bit shipments have increased significantly. Drive revenue upward in the second quarter. Among them, SK Group’s revenue growth ranked second, with a month-on-month growth of approximately 26.6%; Western Digital’s revenue growth was approximately 5.4%.

Samsung and Kioxia are the only two companies to experience a decline in revenue. Although their bit shipments have grown, they are still unable to withstand the impact of falling average selling prices.

Samsung’s revenue in the second quarter decreased by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter to approximately US$2.90 billion. Among them, AI servers, which the market continues to focus on, continue to compress the shipment scale of general-purpose servers. Revenue in the NAND Flash field did not decline due to the AI boom. Benefit; Kioxia’s second-quarter revenue decreased by approximately 1.3% quarter-on-quarter to approximately US$1.83 billion.

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According to the report, in the PC sector, the average capacity of DRAM is expected to grow by 12.4%, thanks to the popularization of DDR5 memory driven by Intel’s Meteor Lake processor, which supports only DDR5 and LPDDR5 and is expected to overtake DDR4 as the mainstream in the second half of 2024.

The growth of PC Client SSDs is not as strong as that of PC DRAMs, with the annual growth rate of the average capacity of DRAMs expected to be only about 8~10%. Due to the gradual shift of most consumers’ usage habits to cloud computing, the demand for notebook PCs with high-capacity storage space is decreasing, and even with the increase in 1TB models, 512GB models are still the mainstream of consumption.

As for servers, the average annual growth rate of Server DRAM capacity is estimated to reach 17.3%, which is mainly due to the generation transition of server platforms, increased reliance on RAM matching CPU cores for CSP business, and high demand for AI server arithmetic load.

UFS and eMMC, image storage demand, 5G penetration rate increase, etc., will drive the smartphone average carrying capacity increase, but in the original factory to reduce production to brewing price increases, smartphone OEM cost control will be more cautious, 2024 low-end models 1TB above the planning may be reduced.

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The agency believes that the long-term prospects of the NAND Flash market are still promising due to the growing demand for data generation and storage in the global market and the introduction of new technologies.

The report believes that the following factors will promote the development of the NAND market, and IT House attaches the following content here:

Larger technology companies and traditional enterprise OEMs use more enterprise SSDs;

 The proliferation of SSDs in PCs and game consoles;

 The ever-expanding storage capacity of smartphones and other mobile devices;

 artificial intelligence;

 virtual reality (VR);

 Emerging trends such as autonomous driving and adoption of IoT are expected to drive future growth.

The agency believes that the NAND market will stop declining for seven consecutive quarters and will grow in the third quarter of this year.

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▲ Source: Samsung

South Korean NAND memory makers Samsung and SK Hynix have sought to raise prices of NAND flash memory by 3%-5% to test market reaction, saying the price of NAND flash memory has fallen below variable costs, the report said. It is noticed that some brands of SSD prices are approaching HDD prices.

Market research firm TrendForce pointed out that after South Korean storage manufacturers sharply reduced production in May, some suppliers have raised prices for NAND wafers, and their quotations for the Chinese market have been slightly higher than the transaction prices in March-April. The agency predicts that downstream SSD module factories will start stocking up in June, and 512Gb NAND flash memory wafers are expected to stop falling and rebound slightly, ending the 13-month downward trend in prices.

In addition, the report also pointed out that due to Samsung’s large-scale production cuts in the second quarter, some NAND buyers’ willingness to purchase increased, and downstream SSD manufacturers and PC OEMs were the most active. As a result, overall NAND memory shipments are expected to grow 5.2% sequentially in the second quarter. Due to the strong willingness of buyers to purchase, NAND storage manufacturers such as Samsung have gradually strengthened their quotations. It is expected that NAND prices will start to rise in the third quarter of this year, with an increase of up to 5%, and the increase will further expand to 8%-13% in the fourth quarter.

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The company’s revenue is expected to grow by about $7.5 billion in the coming year.

According to Tiburon Consulting, the global economic downturn and the lack of demand for the three major end-use applications (servers, notebooks and smartphones) forced manufacturers to reduce prices to clear inventories, and the global average selling price (ASP) of NAND flash memory fell 15% in the first quarter, which directly led to the overall weak sales.

By company, Samsung Electronics continued to rank first with sales of $2.93 billion (currently about RMB 20.832 billion), down 15.8% sequentially, but with a slightly higher market share of 34.0% compared to the previous quarter.

The second-ranked Japan Armorer recorded sales of $1,851.4 million (currently about RMB 13.163 billion), down just 5.9% from the previous quarter, and its market share rose from 19.1% to 21.5%.

The third-ranked SK Group recorded sales of only $1,315.5 million (RMB 9.353 billion) in the first quarter, down 24.8% YoY, and its market share shrunk to 15.3%, further widening the gap with Armor Man.

Tibco forecasts, as in the second quarter Samsung will also join the ranks of production cuts like Micron, coupled with OEMs as the representative of the main buyers to improve the willingness to purchase, is expected in the second quarter the overall shipments of NAND flash memory will increase by 5.2%, but as manufacturers are still carrying the pressure of inventory clearance, the full product ASP still continues to decline, so the second quarter NAND flash memory industry revenue is expected to continue to NAND flash memory industry revenue is expected to continue to decline in the second quarter, down about 7.9% sequentially.

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Macronix currently owns a 12″ wafer fab and an 8″ wafer fab; the 6″ wafer fab was sold to Hon Hai in August 2021 for NTD 2.52 billion.

In a recent development of Macronix’s 3D NAND Flash product, mass production of its internally developed 96-layer 3D NAND flash memory has begun, marking a milestone for the chipmaker’s NAND business.

In addition to this, Macronix has previously stated that it expects to complete further development of its 192-layer 3D NAND Flash product by the end of 2023, Macronix’s 48-layer 3D NAND Flash product will be in mass production in September 2021.

Image source Pexels
In December last year, Macronix’s Board of Directors approved a NT$2.648 billion capital budget for 3D NAND Flash development and operations, including capital expenditures for 2023 and 3D NAND Flash R&D machinery and equipment, which is expected to be invested from the first quarter of 2023.

Macronix is also continuing to advance its serial flash technology and started mass production of its 45nm 3V serial flash series in January this year.

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