According to the latest research report released by TrendForce, as suppliers strictly control output and further expand the scale of production cuts, NAND Flash contract prices are expected to increase by 8-13% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of this year.
Regarding client SSDs, since both original manufacturers and module manufacturers are actively raising prices, prices will not fall in the short term. On the other hand, production cuts in mainstream processes and fewer high-end Client SSD suppliers have given original manufacturers better bargaining power. Therefore, high-end products are expected to rise together. It is estimated that the contract price of PC Client SSD in the fourth quarter will increase by 8~13% month-on-month.
In terms of enterprise SSD, the inventory of Chinese CSP operators has dropped to a reasonable level. Coupled with the increase in demand from second-tier e-commerce during the peak season, the overall procurement demand for Enterprise SSD is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. As NAND wafer prices have started to rise since August, and suppliers’ bargaining attitudes have become tougher, Enterprise SSD contract prices are expected to increase by about 5 to 10% month-on-month in the fourth quarter.
In terms of eMMC, in the second half of the year, it will mainly rely on TV shipments and demand for some smartphones, but in fact the purchasing momentum is not positive. As original factory production cuts have also affected the mainstream manufacturing process of eMMC, the volume of goods has gradually decreased, and customers may only be able to obtain part of the supply even if they propose purchase quantities. Therefore, it is estimated that the eMMC contract price in the fourth quarter will increase by about 10~15% quarter-on-quarter.
In terms of UFS, benefiting from the release of new phones, seasonal stocking-up effects and the efforts of some brands to maintain market share, smartphone OEMs tend to increase parts inventories to a safe level in the fourth quarter, driving up procurement momentum. It is expected that in the fourth quarter Quarterly UFS contract prices have increased by 10~15% month-on-month.
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