UBS analysts say the supply of iPhone 14 Pro models has eased, but will not be able to meet market demand in the near term. UBS believes the slowdown in production of iPhone 14 Pro models will continue to affect Apple’s earnings in 2023 but will recover by 2024.
UBS said in the memo that iPhone shipments are estimated to decline by 5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 and by 3 percent in fiscal 2023. The current supply situation of each iPhone model has improved and the waiting time has been shortened, but the tight supply situation will continue until 2023.
UBS previously expected iPhone sales of about 83 million units in the fourth quarter of this year but has now revised them downward to 79 million units, a 5 percent drop. Due to the continued extension of delivery times, sales in the first quarter of next year have also been revised downward to 58 million units.
UBS expects Apple to ship 232 million iPhones in 2023 instead of the expected 239 million, a decline of 7 million units. However, analysts maintain their forecast of 239 million units in 2024.
