Tesla Supercharger network expected to be worth more than $100 billion

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas recently made a judgment, saying Tesla’s super-charging station network will bring Tesla more than 100 billion dollars of huge value.

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It is noted that Jonas is one of Morgan Stanley’s top Tesla analysts. He and his team first hypothesized that Tesla could produce and store its own solar power to power its supercharging stations.

Based on this hypothesis, Jonas’ team estimated the value of Tesla’s supercharging network in several ways and dimensions. These include:

Electric vehicle miles traveled in the U.S. in 2030

Market share of Superchargers powering those miles

Average efficiency of 4 miles per kWh of electricity driven

A price of $0.32 per kilowatt-hour of electricity

The Jonas team then estimated the value of the Supercharger network under different scenarios, using a 20x FY 2030 after-tax net operating profit and a 9.0% weighted average cost of capital, and valued the Tesla Supercharger network under different scenarios:

"plausible case": assuming 10% EV mileage penetration, 50% market share of Tesla Superchargers, and a 30% net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) margin, the potential net present value of Tesla's Supercharger business is $3 per share

"Credible Case: Assuming 20% EV mileage penetration, 70% market share of Tesla's hyperchargers, and 50% NOPAT, the potential NPV of the business is $14 per share

"Dominant Case": Assuming 30% EV mileage penetration, 80% share of Tesla Superchargers, and 70% NOPAT, the potential NPV of the business is $33 per share

"Monopoly Case": Assuming 50% EV mileage penetration, 100% share of Tesla Superchargers, and 80% NOPAT, the potential NPV of the business is $78 per share

Since Tesla holds over 3 billion shares outstanding, at $33 per share, the entire Supercharger network would have a maximum estimated value of over $100 billion.

Currently, the Tesla Supercharger Network is the only global fast-charging network for electric vehicles, with automotive giants such as GM and Ford set to join the Tesla NACS charging interface standard, and the number of automakers showing interest in the standard is growing.