Specifically, IC Insights analyzed that global semiconductor sales are expected to grow 3 percent year-over-year in 2022 to hit a new record of $636 billion (about 4.59 trillion yuan) this year after jumping 25 percent to $614.7 billion (about 4.43 trillion yuan) in 2021.

The reports notes that the unfavorable conditions that have emerged in the second half of this year for semiconductors are expected to continue into the first half of next year. Weak demand for enterprise and personal computers and smartphones, rising chip inventory levels, and continued weakness in the memory market are expected to reduce total semiconductor sales by 5 percent year-over-year next year. total IC sales are expected to decline 6 percent year-over-year, while non-IC O-S-D is expected to grow modestly year-over-year.

In addition, IC Insights forecasts that after a cyclical downturn in 2023, future semiconductor sales are forecast to rebound and achieve stronger growth over the next three years. Semiconductor sales are expected to reach $843.6 billion (approximately RMB 6.08 trillion) by 2026, representing a compound annual growth rate of 6.5%.

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According to Susquehanna’s research, semiconductor lead times (the time difference between ordering a chip and delivering it) averaged 26.3 weeks in September. This compares with nearly 27 weeks the previous month.

Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland said in a research note that wait times are contracting across all key product categories, with power management and analog chips seeing the biggest declines.

A global chip shortage has plagued a large number of industries over the past year, with automakers and other manufacturers struggling to get enough semiconductors. Some supply constraints still exist, but now many chipmakers are worried about the opposite problem: high chip inventories.

Slowing sales in certain markets, such as personal computers, have left Intel Corp. and advanced microdevice companies with lower-than-expected demand. Earlier this month, AMD’s third-quarter sales fell more than $1 billion short of expectations, and Intel Corp. is preparing to cut jobs in response to the downturn.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index, a key benchmark for chip stocks, has fallen 44 percent this year.

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