▲ Picture source Omdia’s post on the X platform

Omdia said that although the current 5G communication technology has been widely used, due to factors such as price competition and cost of living, mobile ARPU (Note: Average Revenue Per User, average revenue obtained by users) will be from 2022 to 2028. It dropped from US$6.3 (currently about 46 CNY) to US$5.8 (currently about 42 CNY).

▲Image source Omdia

At the same time, capital expenditures in the telecommunications industry will increase by 7.6% from US$355 billion (currently about 2.59 trillion CNY) to US$382 billion (currently about 2.78 trillion CNY), with a compound annual growth rate of The rate was 1.3%, which was driven by industry competition and investment.

▲Image source Omdia

However, Omdia also stated that by 2028, mobile RAN (Note: 5G radio access network) related expenditures will decline.

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According to the report, the business opportunity for Micro LED display panels lies in several application areas that can accept ultra-high-end and high-priced Micro LED display panels, such as smart watches, automobiles, laptops, near-eye display panels, TVs, and special cinema display panels or digital signage. Micro LED display panel makers (especially AU Optronics, Innolux and Nitronix) due to the special display performance characteristics of 10-14 inches Micro LED display panels, convertibility and acceptance in the high-end automotive and laptop fields Hopeful for their development.

Omdia estimates that the total manufacturing cost of a 10.1-inch Micro LED display panel will be $5,800, our rough estimate is $8,000 for a 12.1-inch display panel and $10,000 for a 14.6-inch display panel. This is the cost, not the quotation of the panel manufacturer. Manufacturers of Micro LED display panels may add a 10–20% premium to their quotations to cover the profit of Micro LED display panels.

With the expansion of production scale and higher yield in 2024 and beyond, the Omdia model shows that by 2027, the cost of 10.1-inch Micro LED display panels will drop to $1,277 per piece, while the cost of 12.1-inch display panels will drop to $1,800 / piece, the cost of a 14.6-inch display panel will drop to $2,400 / piece.

Prices in 2027 will still be very expensive compared with OLED, but the excellent picture performance and low power consumption of Micro LED display panels could be very attractive, especially in luxury cars and very high-end laptops, Omdia said.

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Omdia had previously predicted that smart TVs would account for 91.4 percent of the total this year, compared to 90.1 percent for all of last year.

▲ Source: LG Electronics

From the perspective of smart TV systems, Android, which has the largest market share, dropped from 42.4% last year to 40.9% in the first quarter of this year; while the share of Samsung’s own platform Tizen rose slightly from 21% last year to 40.9% in the first quarter. 21.8%; LG’s webOS also increased slightly from 12.2% in the same period last year to 12.4%.

According to previous reports, analysts at Sigma Consulting predict that as early as the second quarter of this year, the overseas TV camp led by Sony, LG and Samsung will be surpassed by Chinese TV brands for the first time in history, and the TV market structure will usher in a watershed. The global market share of China’s top seven TV brands increased from 31% to 36% in the first quarter and is expected to go further in the second quarter, breaking through the 40% market share mark.

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The report pointed out that the metaverse and the further popularization of AR/VR applications among the public will change consumers’ habits. These applications require excellent broadband quality and low-latency connections to function properly and perform as expected.

According to Omdia, gigabit broadband is now mainstream in the advanced broadband market. Consumer gigabit broadband subscriptions will nearly triple between 2021-2023 as consumers have become accustomed to expecting fast, reliable, high-quality and low-latency connectivity services. However, operators need to carefully consider market requirements when formulating gigabit strategies, paying attention to quality of experience (QoE) as well as speed.

In terms of gigabit broadband, Omdia said that by 2023, only 54% of households worldwide will have fixed broadband connections at home, and only 7% of households will enjoy gigabit broadband speeds. Most Gigabit Internet-connected households are concentrated in North America, Western Europe, Oceania, East Asia & Southeast Asia.

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Omdia said the next wave of 5G services will come from low-income markets. Many of the upcoming 5G networks will come from low-income markets in Africa, Central & South Asia, and Latin America. India is expected to be the third-largest 5G market in the world (by subscribers) by the end of 2023.

The report says the telecom market will see a further wave of consolidation. Further consolidation among operators is likely to occur. Given that revenues are growing moderately while network spending remains high, many industry insiders believe that operators will have to embark on mergers and acquisitions if they are to succeed.

At the same time, operators will tighten their business focus. Many operators will sharpen their business focus, which may lead them to divest non-core assets and businesses. Some operators may consider selling recently established, newer digital services businesses or bringing in strategic investors to further develop these businesses.

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Some forecast that next year (2023) NAND flash memory market size will approach the DRAM market. However, DRAM prices have fallen more rapidly than the factors contributing to the growth of the NAND flash memory market.

Analysts believe that the NAND flash memory market size of $60.49 billion this year, compared with the DRAM market ($81.714 billion) decreased by more than 30%. In particular, by 2025, the NAND flash memory market will reach $84.378 billion, surpassing the DRAM market ($83.397 billion) for the first time.

The memory semiconductor market has entered a serious downturn since the second half of this year. Despite this, NAND has maintained its pricing level compared to DRAM. As a result, Omdia predicts that next year the DRAM market size will decrease by more than 30% compared to this year, while the NAND market size next year will maintain the same size as this year.

They believe that the NAND flash memory market growth momentum compared to DRAM has risen sharply is also one of the reasons for the positive outlook of the NAND market. The use of NAND is expanding not only in data centers and artificial intelligence (AI), but also in automobiles. The amount and specification of memory that has recently entered the automobile is increasing.

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In the future, the display panel size of notebook computer panels will show a trend of diversification for different industries

According to Omdia’s “Large Display Panel Technology Tracker – Q3 2022 Analysis,” most PC brands have partnered with panel makers to define mainstream notebook panel sizes for new models in 2022 and 2023. In 2022, a variety of mainstream notebook computer panels with different sizes and 16:10 ratio screens have been mass-produced. However, both computer brands and panel manufacturers are still looking for and developing new notebook computer sizes suitable for users in various industries. For example, business users prefer laptops with low power consumption and slightly smaller form factor, such as 13.x, 14, or 15.x inches; gaming experts or designers prefer 16 or 18 inches; .x or 14 inches; and 15.x or 16.x inches for high-performance notebooks used by a semiconductor or IT engineers. Computer brands and panel manufacturers can easily meet the needs of all customers for different target sizes through products of different sizes.

Figure 1 shows mainstream laptop displays, with a gradual shift from 16:9 to 16:10. This transition will take at least three years because PC brands first need to digest the 16:9 panel inventory in their hands.

Below are high-end laptop size trends, including those in development. Computer brands are seeking new high-end laptop sizes as panel makers ramp up low-temperature polysilicon and oxide capacity, as well as new larger-sized MacBook laptops. As a result, Dell, Lenovo, and Asus are all planning to use 14.5-inch laptop panels for their mid-sized premium laptop models. Some brands are also considering 16.3- or 16.5-inch panels for larger premium notebook models. For high-end 13. x-inch notebooks, panel makers and PC brands alike are looking for sizes and panel cuts that fit into small form factor high-end models. The screen-to-ratio shift in high-end laptops will take longer than mainstream laptops because brands don’t know if their high-end laptop size shifts will be successful.

Figure 2: Advanced laptop displays transitioning to 16:10

The Omdia report predicts that mainstream notebook models will be reduced from five to four sizes in the future, but the size of high-end notebooks is still uncertain. For high-end notebooks, brands compete not only on size, but also on ecosystems of notebook models, processor and graphics configurations, exterior design, software usage, and performance and features customers experience. Currently, Chinese and Korean panel makers are very interested and willing to invest in future high-end laptop panel sizes with new features such as transparency, wide color gamut, and HDR 1400.

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The decline was uneven, with different parts of the market driving the weakness at different times,” said Cliff Leimbach, senior research analyst. the decline in the second quarter of 2022 was driven by weakness in the personal computer market, where Intel fell 17 percent. The most recent decline is due to weakness in the memory market. Memory revenue declined 27% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) due to the lower data center, PC and mobile demand, coupled with inventory adjustments by customers.”

After a record run, the semiconductor market has cooled and consumer confidence has weakened, resulting in a historic third-quarter decline. Semiconductor sales have increased in anticipation of increased consumer demand in the second half of the year. The long-term average quarterly growth rate from 2002 to 2021 is 8 percent.

The three memory-focused companies (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron Technology) all dropped one spot in the rankings, the report said. While the major memory suppliers accounted for more than $10 billion of the decline in semiconductor revenue in the third quarter of 2022, they weren’t the only companies struggling. AMD’s revenue declined due to slowing demand for personal computers and reduced inventory, the same market conditions felt by Intel in the previous quarter.

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Omdia said that September 2022 will be the last month of the LCD TV Open Cell price reduction cycle. Since October, panel makers have been clamoring for higher prices or they will not accept orders.

The report points out that more and more TV brands and OEMs are accepting price increases. Not only did the smaller sizes end up seeing price increases, but almost all sizes, including 32″, 43″, 50″, 55″ and 65″.

Before increasing the utilization rate of production lines, the price increase target of panel makers is to ensure that the selling price is higher than the cash cost. According to Omdia, most LCD TV brands and OEMs will have to accept price increases. Accepting higher panel prices is the only way to secure the supply of TV panels they need, especially during periods of low production line utilization.

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The report points out that one of the faster-growing application areas includes VR devices, smart door locks and floor robots.

Omdia expects that future consumer VR headsets will be equipped with at least six different kinds of cameras, including two positioning cameras, two eye-tracking cameras, one ToF camera and one RGB camera, which are used to complete inside-out tracking of the device’s own positioning, eye tracking, gesture tracking, and to achieve see through and other functions. If the VR grip is equipped with a visual positioning solution, the number of cameras will be even higher.

In addition, Omdia predicts that global shipments of CIS for VR headsets will grow at a CAGR of 41% to exceed 200 million in 2026.

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