Declining demand in the high-end TV segment is the main reason for the downward revision. Another key factor is the competition from WOLED and QD OLED TVs. Meanwhile, shipments of Mini LED-backlit IT display panels remain stable, thanks to their use in Apple products.

According to the report, Mini LED-backlit TV shipments will approach 2 million units in 2021, four times the number shipped in 2020. This positive performance has encouraged many TV manufacturers to increase their Mini LED-backlit TV shipment targets in early 2022.

However, the final shipment results at the end of 2022 were disappointing, with total Mini LED-backlit LCD TV shipments expected to be 3.1 million units in 2022. Samsung increased its shipments in this area to more than 2 million units. But TCL, LG Electronics shipments did not show growth, in addition to Sony, Hisense and other newcomers also in Mini LED backlit TV shipments to achieve only a slight increase.

The main reason for the downward revision of the shipment forecast must be the declining demand in the segment of high-end TVs. Due to the global recession, many TV manufacturers’ high-end TV sales were hit hard. 2022 OLED TV shipments also remained at 7.4 million units, almost the same as in 2021. 2023, Samsung plans to increase its shipments of QD OLED TVs, expecting this technology to bring it a new level of growth. It expects this technology to give it a unique competitive advantage. Since Mini LED backlit panels compete with OLED panels in the high-end TV segment, and Samsung’s Mini LED backlit TV shipments have been the number one share, this move by Samsung will have a serious impact on the Mini LED backlit TV market.

In light of this, Omdia has lowered its Mini LED backlit TV shipment forecast: the previous estimate for Mini LED backlit TV shipments in 2023 was over 10 million units. Now, that number has been revised down to just 5.7 million units. And by 2026, shipments are expected to reach 20 million units, again below the previous forecast of 26 million units.

Meanwhile, Mini LED-backlit IT display panel shipments are expected to be 15.8 million in 2022. 14.3 million in 2021, compared with Omdia’s previous forecast of 16.8 million in 2022. This is a stable forecast and has not been revised downward as much as the TV shipment forecast.

More than 90 percent of Mini LED-backlit IT display panel shipments are for Apple products such as the 12.9-inch iPad Pro and 14.2 and 16.2-inch MacBook Pro. The recession and global supply chain issues have had relatively little impact on Apple. In addition, Apple’s delay in adopting OLED panels in its products is helping to stabilize demand for Mini LED-backlit IT display panels.

However, Apple may adopt OLED panels in its iPads by 2024 and expand them to MacBooks by 2026. As Apple adopts OLED panels, the demand for Mini LED-backlit panels for tablets and notebooks may fade away.

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