Lithium battery prices have fallen dramatically over the past 20 years, fueling the electric vehicle revolution. However, due to the impact of soaring metal costs and overall inflation, lithium battery prices have risen instead of falling in recent years.

Source: NIO

Goldman Sachs Research estimates that the cost of vehicle power batteries will drop to $99 per 1kWh of electricity in 2025, a 40% drop from 2022 (previous forecast was a 33% drop). This milestone is considered a turning point for the massive expansion of electric vehicles in the market.

Goldman Sachs analysis believes that more than half of the reason is the decline in the prices of raw materials for electric vehicles such as lithium, nickel and cobalt. Battery pack prices are expected to decline by an average of 11% per year from 2023 to 2030, Nikhil Bhandari, co-head of Asia Pacific natural resources and clean energy research at Goldman Sachs Research, wrote in the team’s note.

Note: Goldman Sachs focuses on the cost at the battery pack level, not the cost in the battery cell.

At the battery pack level, prices vary widely in the EV industry because automakers have many different ways of producing battery packs.

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According to reports, these include Ganfeng Lithium Battery (Dongguan) New Lithium Battery and Energy Storage Headquarters Project with an annual output of 10Gwh, Jiwa Forest (Qingxi) Smart Technology Industry Project (Phase I), Guangdong Beston Digital Energy Project and other industrial projects There are 59 projects with a total investment of 55.93 billion yuan.

The official announcement shows that the Ganfeng Lithium Battery (Dongguan) new lithium battery and energy storage headquarters project with an annual output of 10Gwh is funded and constructed by Dongguan Ganfeng Electronics Co., Ltd. After the project is completed, it is expected to produce 10GWh of batteries per year, 3GWh of light power packs, and 2GWh of outdoor portable energy storage packs. , household energy storage, industrial and commercial energy storage system PACK5GWh.

The company is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Battery Technology Co., Ltd., mainly engaged in R&D and production of lithium iron phosphate, semi-solid batteries, light power batteries, outdoor portable energy storage power supplies, and household energy storage. , Industrial and commercial energy storage systems, etc.

Ganfeng Lithium Industry is the leading lithium ecological enterprise in my country and the first “A+H” share listed company in my country’s lithium industry. “Five major business segments.

At present, Ganfeng has established multiple R&D and production bases in Xinyu, Jiangxi, Ningbo, Zhejiang, Suzhou, Jiangsu, Huizhou, Guangdong, Chongqing, Xiangyang, Hubei, and Hohhot, Inner Mongolia.

The announcement shows that the project has a land area of about 325.5 mu, a construction area of about 395,000 square meters, and a construction period of 2023-2025.

The official also stated that in the future, this Dongguan project with an investment scale of 5 billion yuan will become the headquarters of Ganfeng lithium battery energy storage sector, Ganfeng new energy storage battery research and development center and production base, and at the same time become a display window for Ganfeng lithium battery for overseas marketing and marketing service center, the output value can reach 11 billion yuan after completion.

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▲ Screenshot of the press release on the official website of the European Patent Office

According to the website of the European Patent Office, Wu Kai and his team have developed a lithium-ion battery with a top cover that acts as a barrier to reduce battery safety risks, thereby reducing the risk of battery explosion and fire in electric vehicles.

CATL official account also posted a message to celebrate the news, Wu Kai said: “It is a great honor to receive the European Inventor Award, which will inspire me and CATL to continue to innovate in battery technology. More importantly, equipped with our advanced, safe Battery-powered electric vehicles are enabling more people to embrace sustainable lifestyles, thereby promoting global energy transformation. In the future, I hope that more inventors will join the new energy track, and let us make more benefits for all mankind Invent and innovate.”

▲ Screenshot of CATL official account

Established jointly by the European Patent Office and the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Enterprise and Industry in 2006, the European Inventor’s Award is a globally recognized innovation award aimed at honoring inventors who pave the way for a better future for mankind. The European Inventor Awards category “Non-EPO Member States Award” recognizes the work of outstanding inventors from outside the 39 EPO member states, who have previously been granted a European patent.

The list of the 2023 European Inventor Awards is attached as follows:

Industry Award: Transforming waste and residues into high-quality renewable solutions

 Winners: Pia Bergström, Annika Malm, Jukka Myllyoja, Jukka-Pekka Pasanen and Blanka Toukoniitty (Finland)

 The team at the Finnish company Neste has participated in the development of a unique technology that converts various waste and residues into high-quality renewable products such as fuel.

Research Award: A safe and sustainable way to store hydrogen

 Winners: Patricia de Rango, Daniel Fruchart, Albin Chaise, Michel Jehan, Nataliya Skryabina (France)

 The French team combined their expertise and interests to develop a way to store hydrogen more safely and sustainably using less energy.

SME Award: Using Advanced Acoustic Materials to Reduce Noise

 Winner: Rhona Togher, Eimear O'Carroll (Ireland)

 Irish physicists have developed a composite material to reduce noise pollution. The material is thin, lightweight and cost-effective, making it suitable for applications ranging from aerospace to automotive.

Non-EPO National Award: Li-ion Batteries with Reduced Risk of Fire and Explosion (China)

 Winner: Wu Kai and his team

 The inventor from the Chinese team has pioneered a range of features with his team to improve the safety and performance of lithium-ion batteries, helping the transition to cleaner cars.

Lifetime Achievement Award: Molecular sieve catalysts improve chemical reactions

 Avelino Corma Canós (Spain)

 The Spanish chemist, a pioneer in the field of catalysis, is credited with the Valencia Institute of Technology in Quimica, an institution he co-founded to advance research in energy, sustainability, health and water. chemical research.

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Bolivia has the world’s richest salt lake lithium resources, estimated at 21 million tonnes, nearly a quarter of the world’s total. However, due to multiple factors such as technology, environment, and politics, the country’s salt lake lithium resources have not been effectively developed and utilized. The cooperation between CATL and the Bolivian government will help break this deadlock, bring economic and social benefits to Bolivia, and provide CATL with a stable and low-cost source of lithium raw materials.

It is reported that CATL will extract lithium from the two salt lakes of Uyuni and Oruro in Bolivia, and build two lithium salt processing plants locally, which can produce up to 25,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate per year. . The two factories are due to start construction as early as July, and the total investment in subsequent projects is expected to increase to about $9.9 billion by 2028.

CATL is the largest power battery manufacturer in China and even in the world, and its products are widely used in new energy vehicles, energy storage, 3C and other fields. In order to ensure the resilience and safety of the upstream raw material supply chain, CATL has been actively deploying global battery mineral resources and materials. In addition to the Salt Lake Project in Bolivia, CATL also owns lithium-containing china clay mines and hard rock lithium mine projects in Jiangxi, Sichuan and other places. The industrial chain project has obtained the mining license for the phosphate rock project in Guizhou.

Analysts believe that with the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market, the demand for lithium and other battery raw materials will continue to rise in the future, while the supply side may face uncertainty and volatility. Therefore, it is in line with its long-term development strategy and sustainable development philosophy that CATL obtains scarce resources through self-made mining, investment, joint venture and cooperation, etc., and realizes resource recycling through recycling and other methods.

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At present, Panasonic’s only company in the world that produces lead-acid batteries is Panasonic Battery (Shenyang) Co., Ltd. (PSBS), which officially ceased production on May 31. Previously, it mainly produced lead-acid batteries for industrial use, such as emergency power supplies for buildings. PSBS is expected to go into liquidation in the future.

Panasonic Group reached an agreement with large battery company GS YUASA on the transfer of Panasonic’s lead battery business in 2015, but PSBS and the Thai factory are not in the transfer agreement. The Thai factory ended lead battery production as early as March this year.

According to previous reports, Panasonic will spend 700 billion yen on equipment investment this year, which is almost equivalent to all of Panasonic’s profits in the past three years. More than half of the funds will be invested in the vehicle battery business, and strive to increase battery production capacity by 60% within one year. The investment will focus on the Desoto Super Battery Factory in Kansas, which will mainly supply Tesla with 2170 cells.

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In August 2022, the Chilean Production Promotion Council (CORFO) invited companies to provide proposals on how to develop high-value-added products of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in Chile. Recently, BYD was awarded the contract to become a CORFO-designated producer, with access to the raw materials produced by the Chilean mining and chemical group, at an advantageous price, with a supply capacity of 11,244 tons per year until 2030.

BYD also signed a contract to build a lithium cathode material plant in the Antofagasta region of northern Chile. The plant is planned to have an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons, with a total investment of more than USD 290 million and is scheduled to start operations by the end of 2025 and create 500 local jobs.

In 2017, BYD’s first pure electric bus entered Santiago, Chile. In December 2022, BYD announced a partnership with ASTARA, a local auto dealership group, to provide BYD’s new energy passenger car products for the Chilean market.

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▲ Photo source: Samsung SDI

Most of the world’s lithium iron phosphate batteries are currently produced by Chinese companies, but Korean battery makers LG New Energy and SK On have been reluctant to develop them. In terms of performance, LFP batteries have lower energy density than nickel-based batteries but are also relatively more stable and cheaper.

Samsung SDI CEO Choi Yoon-ho told reporters after the shareholders’ meeting that LFP batteries are one of the key platforms in the electric vehicle sector. He said Samsung SDI is trying to develop LFP batteries in order to diversify its business and customers.

The South Korean battery maker has said in the past that it plans to focus on high-end batteries aimed at providing cheap batteries in a cobalt-free form instead of LFP. he said Samsung Chairman Lee Jae-Yong emphasized the importance of technology and talent during his visit to Samsung SDI once upon a time. This should be the reason why Samsung SDI decided to develop more technology lines.

Meanwhile, Samsung SDI is also expected to complete the construction of a solid-state battery production line. According to the report, the production line will start trial production this year, and commercial production is planned to start in 2027. In addition, Samsung SDI also plans to supply 4680 batteries to BMW or Volvo instead of Tesla.

Samsung SDI’s electronic materials business reported revenue of 624.3 billion won (currently about RMB 3.278 billion) in the fourth quarter of last year, down 11.9 % from the previous year’s 708.7 billion.

In terms of operating profit, Samsung SDI’s operating profit for the fourth quarter of last year was 490.8 billion won (currently about RMB 2.699 billion), much higher than the 265.7 billion won in the same period last year, a year-on-year jump of 84.7%. Operating profit from the energy business was 359.1 billion won, up 198.8% year-on-year, while operating profit from the electronic materials business was 131.7 billion won, down 9.5% year-on-year and slightly lower than the decline in revenue.

Samsung SDI disclosed in their earnings report that their revenue and operating profit in the fourth quarter of last year were both record highs. For the full year 2022, Samsung SDI’s revenue is 20.12 trillion won (currently about RMB 110.66 billion), up RMB 6.57 trillion from 13.55 trillion in 2021, an increase of 48.5% year-over-year.

As in the fourth quarter, Samsung SDI’s full-year revenue growth was also driven by increased revenue from its energy business, including electric vehicle batteries, which posted full-year revenue of 17.57 trillion won, up 6.62 trillion won, or 60.4% year-over-year. The electronic materials business reported full-year revenue of 2.56 trillion won, down from 2.61 trillion won in the previous year and down 1.9% year-over-year.

In terms of profits, the report showed a full-year operating profit of 1.81 trillion won (currently about RMB 9.955 billion), compared with 1.07 trillion won the previous year, an increase of 69.4%, with the energy business contributing 1.25 trillion won, an increase of 133.2%.

Net profit last year was 2.04 trillion won (currently about RMB 11.22 billion), also up significantly from 1.25 trillion in 2021, up 63.1% year-on-year.

Notably, Samsung SDI disclosed in their earnings report that last year’s revenue of 20.12 trillion won was the first time their annual revenue exceeded 20 trillion won.

Like other companies under Samsung, Samsung SDI gave their expectations for the future in their earnings report for the fourth quarter.

In the earnings report, Samsung SDI mentioned that in the first quarter of this year, P5 battery sales will lead to increased sales in the automotive and smart energy storage system battery business, and they also expect to see an increase in automotive and smart energy storage system battery sales year-over-year, and they also expect higher sales of automotive batteries as P5 batteries are used in new models and new production lines come on line.

For automotive batteries, Samsung SDI expects the market to reach $159 billion this year (currently about RMB 1.08 trillion), up 39% year-over-year, despite concerns. Their concerns are mainly about the multiple negative factors that are expected to affect the demand for automobiles.

In the earnings report, Samsung SDI disclosed that they plan to continue the growth momentum driven by the entry of P5 batteries into the high-end electric vehicle market, and they will also continue their efforts to acquire new projects and develop and produce next-generation products such as solid-state batteries to pave the way for medium to long-term growth.

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When it came In addition, the development of solid-state battery products is progressing normally, and the subsequent mass production will be carried out according to customer demand.

In response to the falling price of lithium carbonate, Sunwoda pointed out that the falling price of lithium carbonate is beneficial to the company’s cost control on the raw material side and enhances the company’s profitability. However, the overall profitability of the company not only depends on the control of the cost side but also takes into account the prosperity of the end market and competitors and other factors.

The data published by Sunwoda that as of the first half of 2022, Sunwoda’s power battery production capacity is about 25GWh, and the power battery self-supply rate is 100%.

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The report points out that, in terms of cathode materials, battery-grade lithium carbonate (Lithium Carbonate) is the raw material that occupies the highest cost of cathode materials, and the average price fell 12% in January; another raw material, lithium hydroxide (Lithium Hydroxide) prices also fell, but lithium hydroxide benefited from the support of overseas orders demand, the price fell slightly less than lithium carbonate, but battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide average price in January. The average price of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide dropped to below RMB500,000 per ton in January.

As for electrolytes, the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6), a raw material for electrolytes, fell 11% in January due to falling lithium salt prices, which in turn affected the average price of electrolytes by 11%-15% in January.

According to TrendForce, China’s new energy vehicle market is slowing down, which has led to a decline in demand for power batteries and a collective decline in upstream raw material prices, easing the cost pressure on lithium-ion batteries.

The company’s main business is to promote the development of new energy vehicles.

In January 2023, China’s new energy vehicle production and sales reached 425,000 and 408,000 units respectively, down 46.6% and 49.9% YoY, and down 6.9% and 6.3% YoY, with a market share of 24.7%. In January 2023, sales of pure electric vehicles were 287,000 units, down 18.2% year-on-year; sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 121,000 units, up 42.5% year-on-year.

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However, this situation ushered in an improvement at the end of 2022. According to the Nikkei Chinese website, the soaring price of rare metals used in pure electric vehicle (EV) batteries has been stepped on the brakes. The index price of lithium, the main raw material, hit a new low in three and a half months since late September 2022 on January 5, and the prices of nickel and cobalt have also been at lower prices since this year. Fears of slowing Tesla growth.

Under such circumstances, Tesla’s domestically-produced models have dropped significantly in price. The official website shows that the adjusted price of the domestic Model 3 is 229,900-329,900 RMB, a decrease of 20,000-36,000 RMB, and the adjusted price of Model Y is 259,900-36,000 RMB. 359,900 RMB, a decrease of 29,000 to 48,000 RMB. After the price cut, the price of Tesla cars hit a record low.

In this regard, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Federation, issued a document yesterday stating that China’s used car market will be under enormous pressure in 2022. Due to the severe impact of offline operations on the epidemic, a large number of used car business sites cannot operate normally, and the price fluctuations of superimposed inventory, Used car dealers are very difficult. The recent price reduction of Tesla in China is an expected normal trend, and second-hand car dealers should have expected it long ago.

Cui Dongshu said that the core of electric vehicles replacing fuel vehicles is price competition, behind which is industrial innovation and cost control. As the battery cost of electric vehicles gradually decreases, resources such as lithium ore will not continue to be constrained, and the price of lithium carbonate will return to around 200,000 RMB, or even lower because the supply will gradually diversify and improve. The advantages of scale such as large-scale manufacturing and integrated die-casting will be further highlighted.

He also pointed out that seeing that the price of lithium carbonate has dropped below 400,000 on the futures side, the cost of batteries will inevitably drop significantly in the next few months. The withdrawal of new energy subsidies will help the price of lithium carbonate return to a low-to-medium level.

According to data released by Shanghai Iron and Steel Union, the quotations of some lithium battery materials fell today, battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 10,000 RMB/ton, with an average price of 492,500 RMB/ton, and industrial-grade lithium carbonate fell by 10,000 RMB/ton, with an average price of 46 RMB. RMB 10,000/ton; Lithium hydroxide dropped RMB 7,500~9,000/ton; Nickel beans rose RMB 4,300/ton.

According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, my country’s lithium-ion battery industry will continue to grow rapidly from January to October 2022. According to industry norms and announcements of enterprise information and research institutions, the total output of lithium batteries in the country from January to October exceeded 580GWh.

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