Ming-Chi Kuo said in the latest market research brief, ASML may lower EUV equipment shipments in 2024, the estimated decline between 20-30%. The current industry consensus is that the semiconductor industry bottomed out in the second half of 2023, but does not rule out the possibility of delaying to the first half of 2024 or Q2.
According to Ming-Chi Kuo, there are several reasons why ASML has drastically lowered its EUV equipment shipments:
Apple's 3nm demand next year is lower than expected. Apple's MacBook shipments in 2023 will be 17 million units, down 30% year-on-year; iPad shipments in 2023 are estimated to be 48 million units, down 22% year-on-year. Note: The significant decline is due to the end of the WFH demand and the new specifications (Apple Silicon and Mini-LED) for the user's attraction is gradually declining. Looking ahead to 2024, Apple's 3nm demand is unfavorable due to the lack of growth drivers for MacBook and iPad.
Qualcomm's 2024 3nm demand is lower than expected as Huawei will stop purchasing Qualcomm chips and Exynos 2400 penetration in Samsung phones is higher than expected.
Lower than expected demand for Samsung's 3GAP+ and Intel's 20A.
Samsung, Micron and SK Hynix will not have memory expansion plans until 2025-2027 at the earliest.