According to Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst at Tianfeng Securities, Apple’s existing camera supply chain will enter a high growth cycle for 2 consecutive years due to the iPhone 15’s high unit price periscope camera design. The full article is as follows.
Apple camera supply chain to enter two consecutive years of high growth cycle due to iPhone 15’s high unit price periscope design
The following is my latest investigation and prediction on the adoption of periscope design for the iPhone.
- Conclusion: The main beneficiaries of periscope adoption for the iPhone are
(1) LG Innotek (VCM & CCM): High-unit-price CCM supplier with benefits from vertical integration into VCM/Sensor shift supply.
(2) Goway Electronics (CCM): High-unit-price CCM supplier with high room for future growth due to the low base period.
(3) Jahwa (VCM): New iPhone supplier, benefiting from high unit price VCM (supporting sensor shift).
(4) Dalit (Lens): Exclusive or major supplier of high unit price lens modules in the early stage due to its technological advantage.
(5) Lantoptics (prism): The exclusive or main supplier of high unit price prism in the early stage because of its technology advantage.
- iPhone’s telephoto camera will adopt a periscope design from 2023, and the models with periscope are
(1) 2H23 new iPhone: iPhone 15 Pro Max.
(2) 2H24 new iPhone: iPhone 16 Pro Max and iPhone 16 Pro.
(3) iPhone 15 and iPhone 16 periscopes have similar key specifications, including: 1/3″ 12MP, f/2.8, Sensor shift support, and 5-6x optical zoom.
- At present, the cost of components still depends on the yield rate before mass production. The total output value of the rear camera components, including CIS, VCM, lens and CCM, will increase by 5-10%, 20-25%, 65-70% and 20-25% respectively.
- Benefiting from more iPhone 16 models with periscope and other rear camera upgrades, the total value of 2H24 new iPhone (iPhone 16 series) rear camera components, including CIS, VCM, lens and CCM, will grow by 15-20%, 15-20%, 40-45% and 15-25% YoY, respectively. The total output value of each component of the new iPhone (iPhone 16 series), including CIS, VCM, lens and CCM, will grow 15-20%, 15-20%, 40-45% and 15-20% respectively. 5.
- Prism is the first component adopted by Apple/iPhone and is the most noteworthy focus in the periscope supply chain. It is estimated that the iPhone prism value will grow significantly by 150-200% YoY in 2024. Each periscope camera uses two prisms, which are used to reflect light and create a longer light path, thus enabling optical zoom.
Of all the components, the lens specifications and business models have changed the most and the value growth has been the most significant. The complete periscope lens module consists of a high-cost 1G2P lens, two high-cost prisms and a lens barrel, and the high-cost material is the key to boosting production value. Apple’s lens supplier will provide more complex assembly services for the first time, therefore, Dalit and Yujing are expanding their production in Taichung and Xiamen respectively to meet this order.
(1) The unit price of G (glass lens) is significantly higher than that of P (plastic lens).
(2) Lens suppliers have to assemble the lenses at a high prism price and ship them to CCM.
(3) The ASP of the periscope lens module may be $10-15 (USD) (vs. the ASP of existing high-end 7P lens about $1.5-2).
- CCM unit price is very high. If the initial yield is not good, the unit price may even reach $60-70 (USD) or more. LG Innotek is a VCM/Sensor shift supplier, so it is expected to improve assembly yields and profits through vertical integration. If the yield of the iPhone 15 Pro Max periscope CCM can be significantly improved in the shipping cycle, Goway Electronics will become the CCM supplier for iPhone 16 periscope and benefit significantly from this high unit price order.
- iPhone 15 Pro Max periscope supply chain.
(1) CIS: Sony
(2) Lens: Dalit (primary or exclusive), Yujing (secondary supply)
(3) Prism: Lantek Optical (main or exclusive), Crystal Photonics (secondary)
(4) VCM: LG Innotek (primary), Jahwa (secondary)
(5) CCM: LG Innotek
- iPhone 16 Pro Max & iPhone 16 Pro periscope supply chain
(1) CIS: Sony
(2) Lens: Dalit (primary), Jahwa (secondary)
(3) Prism: Lantek Optical (major), Crystal Photonics (minor)
(4) VCM: LG Innotek (major), Jahwa (minor)
(5) CCM: LG Innotek (major), Goway Electronics (minor supply)
- Part of the market consensus expects Sun Microelectronics to benefit from the adoption of periscope for iPhone, however, my survey points out that Sun Microelectronics still has no visibility for lens or CCM orders at this time.
- If iPhone adopts periscope with good market feedback, then Chinese Android brands may follow suit, with potential suppliers including Semco, Dalit, Sunwoo, Lante Optical, and Crystal Photonics.
