According to a Bloomberg report, JP Morgan analyst Gokul Hariharan recently said that in view of the PC, smartphones and most other terminal markets being weak, into 2024, TSMC’s recovery will slow down, “in view of the macro outlook is uncertain, the first half of 2024 orders are expected to remain subdued. “
Thanks to the global AI windfall, TSMC’s shares grew 60% between October last year and June this year, but traders have become cautious at the moment, especially as the smartphone and PC business has not picked up, and analysts see a faster-than-expected slowdown in orders for high-end AI chips.
▲ Source Bloomberg
The company’s share price has fallen 11% from its June high, and its market value has evaporated by $77 billion (currently about RMB 562.87 billion), due to concerns about the global macro environment. Volatility skews have continued to rise in recent months, leading to further subsequent declines in TSMC’s share price.
Goldman Sachs recently lowered its estimate of TSMC’s capital expenditures for next year by 20% to $25 billion (currently about RMB 182.75 billion), which would be the lowest level since 2020. That’s because Goldman Sachs is concerned that TSMC may delay its capacity expansion plans, and TSMC’s 12-month earnings forecast is down about 8% from its high last October.
