Counterpoint predicts that the global smartphone market will grow by 2% year-on-year in 2023.
Counterpoint’s latest forecast has been revised downward from the previous 6 percent growth rate, and the agency expects market performance to remain sluggish in the first half of 2023, only to begin growing in the third quarter.
Counterpoint Vice President Peter Richardson said annual smartphone shipments are unlikely to return to pre-epidemic levels in the near term, given the increase in ASP and longer replacement cycles; replacement cycles are expected to reach an all-time high of 43 months this year. Although replacement cycles will gradually shorten starting next year, they will remain above 40 months.
However, the agency expects the global 5G handset market to show healthy growth starting in 2024, as low- and mid-priced 5G devices become more common.
The report adds that as more handset manufacturers enter the foldable space, the market will see the price of these phones stabilize and the foldable segment will become more prominent as the 5G space grows.