SpaceX has completed the first complete static ignition test of the Starship last month, and plans to conduct the first orbital test flight at its South Texas base in March or April.
According to SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk, the first orbital mission of the SpaceX Starship is essentially a coin flip, with the $3 billion spacecraft having only a 50 percent chance of success on its first flight, with the exact results to be revealed in the coming weeks.
“I’m not saying it will definitely fly into orbit, but I guarantee it will definitely be exciting,” Elon Musk said in an interview at the Morgan Stanley conference, “and certainly not boring!” I think it has (the potential to succeed), I don’t know, about a 50 percent chance of getting into orbit.”
Although he did not specify what would happen if it failed, but from SpaceX’s previous history of suborbital test flights, Starship’s failure to reach orbit means that it will probably explode.
He also mentioned that even if the first orbital test flight is not successful, it does not matter, SpaceX is building more interplanetary spacecraft. Overall, he thinks one of them has an 80% chance of being in orbit by the end of this year, but “we may need a few more years to achieve full rapid reusability”.
According to SpaceX, the interplanetary spacecraft is designed to send people and cargo to the moon and Mars, and can also perform a variety of other space missions. Elon Musk said the giant stainless steel rocket will be the most powerful rocket ever built and will have 2.5 times the thrust of NASA’s Saturn V at takeoff.
SpaceX is building multiple Starships at its base in South Texas, which the company calls “Starbase,” and plans to achieve a “relatively rapid succession of launches” in the coming months.
