According to British media reports, if Tesla shifts its research and development focus from small, low-priced car platforms to self-driving taxis, it will be a risky bet because of the rapid development of self-driving cars. A successful rollout is still far off, and the technology faces engineering and regulatory hurdles.
Elon Musk
British media reported on Friday that Tesla had canceled plans to develop low-priced cars and instead continued to develop self-driving taxis on the same platform. Although Tesla CEO Elon Musk denied the report in a post on X, he did not specifically identify where the report was inaccurate. Moreover, he later announced that Tesla would release a self-driving taxi on August 8, which seemed to confirm in disguise that self-driving cars would be a business focus of the company in the future.
Greater Risk
Analysts pointed out that given the technical complexity of self-driving taxis, Tesla’s greater focus on it will bring greater risks.
Philip Koopman, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University who studies self-driving car safety, said: “Other companies have found that what they thought was a two- to three-year project actually took 10 Years or 20 years of research and development. Tesla discovered this too.”
Meanwhile, the development of self-driving cars is not going well. In the latest example, self-driving software company Ghost Autonomy shut down its global operations last Wednesday, citing uncertainty about its path to profitability.
Tesla
Last fall, a vehicle from GM’s Cruise self-driving unit struck and dragged a pedestrian, and the subsequent scrutiny from regulators led the company to lay off employees and cut $1 billion in spending. However, GM CEO Mary Barra said in February this year that “self-driving technology has huge benefits” and that the company has a “very valuable asset.”
Moreover, Elon Musk chose to develop self-driving cars using radar and cameras, rather than lidar. “It’s like tying one’s hands behind their back,” Koopman said. Lidar is a remote sensing technology that uses pulsed laser light, much like radar uses radio waves.
Industry insiders say that the advantage of lidar is that it can work under any lighting conditions and has a wider detection range than cameras, but cameras have stronger visual recognition capabilities.
It will take several years
Koopman added that any company developing a self-driving car would need a year or two of perfect performance to prove the technology, but the industry is still far from that “perfection.”
Some Tesla investors and analysts say valuing Tesla’s self-driving taxi business is much more difficult than lower-priced cars.
“Tesla promised eight years ago that all of their cars would be fully autonomous, but even they themselves have changed their development thinking several times in the meantime. Many believe they are still several years away from fully autonomous driving. Years,” said John Krafcik, former CEO of Alphabet’s self-driving technology company Waymo.
Regulatory Review
Tesla’s ambitions in self-driving taxis come as the company faces unprecedented scrutiny from lawsuits and government investigations. The scrutiny undermines Tesla’s touted claims about the capabilities of its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD) systems. Both systems are designed to assist the car in steering, braking and lane changes and are not considered autonomous.
In December, Tesla, under pressure from U.S. safety regulators, agreed to recall more than 2 million Autopilot-equipped cars and implement remote software updates to the system, even as it disputed the U.S. government’s safety concerns. , added more warning measures for car owners.
The recall comes after the National Highway Traffic Administration (NHTSA) investigated crashes involving Autopilot technology. The investigation has raised concerns that Tesla is not taking enough safety measures to warn distracted owners.
Tesla Model 3 with FSD turned on
Tesla also faces a criminal investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice over its claims that its cars can drive themselves. Tesla has clearly warned owners that they must keep their hands on the steering wheel to maintain control of the vehicle and that Autopilot will not make the car drive itself.
Bryant Walker Smith, a professor at the University of South Carolina, is an expert on autonomous vehicle law. He said that Tesla cars are not yet able to support the advent of truly self-driving taxis.
Smith said Tesla’s assisted driving system faces additional scrutiny because “Tesla and its CEO have made a series of unfulfilled promises and highly questionable claims over the years about the capabilities and near-term launch timeline of self-driving.” statement”.
Regulatory restrictions
Beyond that, industry officials say Tesla must comply with U.S. federal and local regulations regarding taxi fleets and self-driving vehicle testing. The issue of liability for self-driving cars has also not been resolved.
Depending on the state, the development of self-driving taxis may require deployment and testing permits, which may subsequently be revoked. The California Department of Motor Vehicles suspended the permit for GM’s self-driving subsidiary Cruise last October after one of its self-driving taxis hit and dragged a pedestrian.
U.S. safety officials are updating certain regulations in 2022 to provide a path for the deployment and testing of fully autonomous vehicles. These cars do not require traditional human controls such as steering wheels and pedals. Officials stress that such cars must still provide the same level of occupant protection as would be the case if a human was driving the car.
However, industry insiders say that if Tesla can succeed, it will bring more consumers into the auto industry, not just those who can currently afford expensive Tesla cars.
Jamie Meyers, an analyst at investment firm Laffer Tengler Investments, holds Tesla stock. He has been impressed by Tesla’s innovation and still believes in Tesla.
“From an engineering perspective, Tesla is more or less in place. (Developing self-driving taxis) is a natural business adjacency. Given Tesla’s premium brand image, we think people are more inclined to accept this Try it,” he said in an email.
