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Citi analysts: Tesla shares are overvalued and could plunge more than 50%

Citi analyst Itay Michaeli says Tesla stock is in a bloated state and could plunge more than 50 percent in the future.

In a report, the analyst reiterated a sell rating on Tesla stock with a price target of $424. Currently, Tesla stock is trading at about $923 per share.

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This bold analysis is largely based on skepticism about Tesla’s Autopilot technology, as data released by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) shows that from June 2021 to May 15, 2022, there were 273 accidents involving Tesla Autopilot, accounting for nearly 70 percent of the 392 accidents involving the advanced assisted driving system. In addition, the analyst believes that Tesla’s stock has a forward P/E ratio of 76 times, which does not take into account the intensification of the economic slowdown.

He wrote in the report, “We believe the current valuation remains challenging, with a handful of other companies that have previously reached Tesla’s current market capitalization reaching an average of about $100 billion in gross profits, and Tesla estimated to be around $30 billion annualized in the second half of 2022 ($20 billion in the first half). And in the context of the current macro situation, it’s important to note that Tesla is expanding production capacity for the Model Y, a car that sells for about $60,000 in the U.S. market, yet the U.S. market is already relatively small and other electric vehicles are increasing.”

Meanwhile, Tesla made a strong argument to justify the current valuation of its stock: second-quarter sales rose 43 percent year-over-year to $14.6 billion. Operating profit jumped 88 percent year-over-year to $2.5 billion.

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