China’s auto exports have grown sharply this year as domestic automakers seek to gain a foothold in foreign markets. By the end of September, China had exported 2.2 million passenger cars, trucks, buses and other vehicles, which is up 54 percent from a year ago and more than twice the average for the entire year from 2012 to 2020.
Image source Pixabay
Among them, electric vehicles have become the largest contributor to China’s vehicle export growth. In the first three quarters of the year, China exported a total of 342,000 passenger electric vehicles, accounting for 29 percent of all exported passenger vehicles and well above the 2 percent in 2019. During the same period, another 314,000 low-speed electric vehicles and 4,000 electric buses were exported abroad.
The surge in Chinese electric vehicle exports has been driven by several factors.
First, China’s dominant position in the supply of electric vehicle batteries and materials has helped boost production in the domestic vehicle market. As interest in electric vehicle technology heats up, foreign automakers are taking advantage of China’s lower production costs and established supply chain to produce large volumes of electric vehicles for global customers.
Second, since last year, Tesla has used its Shanghai factory to mass-produce electric vehicles and has become a major exporter. In the first nine months of this year, the company shipped nearly 165,000 vehicles to international markets through the Shanghai plant. Other multinational automakers, including Renault and BMW, are also exporting domestically made electric vehicles, with VW set to begin exporting next year.
Third, China’s local electric vehicle brands are rapidly emerging. SAIC’s electric vehicle exports jumped to 78,000 units in the first three quarters of this year, with the MG brand, acquired in 2007, being the main export. BYD exported 22,000 electric vehicles and plans to increase sales in 2023 as it continues to enter new markets. In addition, companies such as Xpeng, Nio and Great Wall have also announced major expansion plans.
The growing trend in the number of Chinese EV exports is also starting to show up in EV sales figures in other countries. In the first three quarters of this year, 11 percent of the 1.8 million electric vehicles sold in Europe came from Chinese automakers, up from 2 percent in 2020.
For much of the past decade, the debate has been raging over whether Chinese automakers could gain a foothold on the global stage. 66 percent of China’s car sales in 2015 came from joint ventures between multinational and domestic brands, and being able to enter the German or U.S. markets was seen as making a huge leap forward.
But electric vehicles are changing all that. While many foreign brands dragged their feet and consistently fought against stricter fuel economy regulations for years, China is building its electric vehicle industry through government fleet procurement, subsidies, supply-side incentives and extensive investment in charging pile infrastructure. China now accounts for nearly 60 percent of global electric vehicle sales, and its share of the battery supply chain is even higher.
So far, most of China’s electric vehicle exports have been located at the high end of the market, but that could change. Older foreign automakers are increasingly trying to move upmarket to sell more premium vehicles. Some companies are exiting parts of the market altogether to focus on higher-margin SUVs and trucks.
This shift to the premium end of the market may make sense from a margin standpoint, but it leaves a considerable gap at the lower end of the market that Chinese automakers may try to fill. China has a very clear price advantage in this segment.
A recent survey of lithium-ion battery prices released by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) shows that battery packs are 33 percent more expensive in Europe than in China and 24 percent more expensive in the U.S. In 2021, the average electric car with a domestic battery will sell for $26,500, less than two-thirds the average price of an electric car in Europe and less than half the average price of an electric car in the U.S.
For the past decade, traditional automakers have been confident that they would quickly expand production and capture the market as soon as there was real demand for electric vehicles. But in China, the world’s largest auto market, that has not been the case. Today, plug-in hybrids account for nearly 30 percent of vehicle sales in China. Excluding Tesla, multinational automakers account for a tiny fraction of those sales, and are increasingly being sidelined.
The established automakers are now generally talking about how to compete for the position of “second largest electric car maker” behind Tesla, or how to surpass Tesla in the next decade. That means there’s a huge blind spot in their vision, ignoring BYD. BYD is aiming to sell nearly 2 million plug-in hybrids this year and more than 3 million by 2023. That’s far more than VW is likely to achieve this year.
Of course, all this progress doesn’t mean that Chinese auto brands will have a smooth ride into international markets. Gaining consumer trust, brand recognition and market share will take time, and building high-quality cars will remain difficult. Nonetheless, numerous studies show that consumers who drive electric cars really like them. And the latest export figures show that Chinese automakers are already trying to meet their demand.
