Trip Chowdhry, an analyst with Global Equities Research, predicts that Tesla will have a “record delivery quarter” this year. Based on observations of Tesla’s Fremont plant and the new Texas plant, Chowdhry predicts that Tesla will deliver more than 500,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2022, with the Fremont plant delivering 145,000 vehicles, the Shanghai plant delivering 246,000 vehicles, and the new Berlin and Texas plants each delivering 60,000 vehicles, for a total of 511,000 vehicles.
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Earlier, Chowdhry visited Tesla’s Fremont plant in California and made some important observations that led to a forecast that Tesla will deliver more than 500,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. The analyst’s comments are similar to those made by Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas after his visit to the Fremont plant.
Chowdhry observed that the dedication of Tesla employees to their work is unparalleled in the auto industry. He added that Tesla employees worked throughout Labor Day Weekend in the United States. Likewise, Gianarikas was “fascinated by the morale of the employees at the Tesla factory.
Chowdhry highlighted that the Fremont plant has increased productivity by at least 10 percent compared to the second quarter of 2022. In addition, he noted that the Model S Plaid has seen significant growth in production and deliveries.
Regarding the new Tesla Texas plant, Chowdhry observed that Elon Musk slept at the plant for three nights this past August, suggesting that some significant work is underway at the facility. In addition, production at the Texas plant has recently ramped up. Chowdhry also noted that multiple trucks filled with Model Y’s left the Texas plant on Sept. 1, meaning that Model Y cars made at the Texas plant will soon be delivered to more customers.
In the first quarter of this year, Tesla produced 305,407 vehicles and delivered 310,048 vehicles. The company’s production and delivery numbers dropped in the second quarter of the year, partly due to restrictions imposed on its Shanghai plant by the epidemic.
However, between mid-July and early August of this year, Tesla China temporarily shut down its Model Y and Model 3 assembly lines for an upgrade. The upgraded assembly line is expected to significantly increase the output of the Shanghai plant. Recently, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Association, predicted that Tesla’s Shanghai plant would reach 77,000 units in August.
As for the Berlin plant, it has already reached a production rate of 1,000 units per week. The company’s current goal is to produce 2,000 cars per week. In August, Tesla shifted the plant to two-shift production after hiring about 5,000 employees at Grünheide.
Taken together, Tesla’s vision of hoping to grow sales by more than 50 percent a year is expected to be the first to take the lead in 2022.
