Estimated delivery times for Apple products show that the Mac and Apple Watch may be the most tightly supplied, but the overall impact remains modest, JPMorgan said. In a note to investors, J.P. Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee analyzed Apple’s delivery times, which is the time it takes for customers to receive items after placing a purchase order. Lead times are not always an accurate assessment of demand, but they can reveal the balance between supply and demand.
Globally, Apple’s long delivery times for Macs and iPads have eased, with Apple Mac delivery times dropping to under a month and iPad delivery times easing to 12 days. The estimated delivery date for the company’s AirPods stabilized at 2 days.
Lead times for Apple’s iPhones, the company’s most important hardware division, remained stable globally, averaging 4 days. The low lead times for Apple’s phones led Chatterjee to believe that the impact of the global supply crunch would be more moderate in the June quarter than Apple had warned. Apple previously warned investors that there could be a revenue hit involving $4 billion to $6 billion due to supply issues.
In the U.S., Apple Watch delivery times accelerated further, while delivery times for other item categories slowed. In Western Europe, delivery times for Apple iPhones and AirPods remained below one week, while expected delivery dates for other product categories were longer.
In Japan, delivery times picked up for both Apple Watch and iPhone but declined for Apple Mac.
Chatterjee maintains his 12-month Apple stock price estimate of $200. The price target is based on his 2023 earnings estimate of $6.73 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 30 times.